Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have emerged as the two finalists for the lead-left underwriting role on the forthcoming initial public offerings of OpenAI and Anthropic, two listings expected to redefine the 2026 IPO calendar.
The contest follows Goldman’s recent victory in securing the same position for the June 12 2026 SpaceX flotation. Analysts say a repeat win would fortify the bank’s dominance in large-cap tech deals, while a Morgan Stanley upset would rebalance a rivalry that has dominated Wall Street’s equity-capital markets for more than a decade.
Why the lead-left slot matters
The bank named at the far left of an S-1 prospectus receives veto power over share allocations and retains first call on analyst coverage. “Other underwriters share in the fees but do not participate in the allocation,” explains Jay Ritter, IPO scholar at the University of Florida. That discretion drives institutional investors—hedge funds, mutual funds, insurers, and endowments—to cultivate the lead-left bank through “soft dollars,” the commission overages paid on secondary trades in exchange for IPO access.
“If you don’t know who’s going to be the lead left bank, you’d want to be using soft dollars to build up very profitable accounts at both banks in order to get the maximum number of shares,” says Ritter.
SpaceX sets a lucrative precedent
SpaceX is scheduled to list on 12 June 2026 with Goldman Sachs as lead-left bookrunner. The rocket maker aims to raise roughly $86 billion, a scale that would generate about $600 million in underwriting fees at a typical 0.75 percent gross spread. The real prize, however, comes from the expected first-day “pop.” Ritter’s long-term data show that three-quarters of U.S. IPOs close above offer price on day one, with an average gain of 19 percent.
If SpaceX were to climb 20 percent on debut, investors would reap more than $17 billion in paper profits. Ritter estimates that at least 30 percent of that windfall—almost $5 billion—would circle back to underwriters via soft-dollar trading, with the majority flowing to Goldman because of its lead-left status.
Bigger potential pots in generative AI
OpenAI and Anthropic are each expected to raise no less than $60 billion, creating a combined deal size 40 percent larger than the SpaceX offering. A similar 20 percent first-day surge would hand investors nearly $24 billion. If the customary 30 percent soft-dollar conversion holds, more than $7 billion could return to underwriting desks—with the lead-left bank again receiving the lion’s share.
The scale of those numbers explains the intensified jockeying. Prediction market Kalshi assigns Goldman a 73 percent probability of leading the OpenAI deal, while Polymarket currently views the Anthropic mandate as a toss-up. Both start-ups filed confidential draft registration statements with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this year, but neither has disclosed a listing timetable.
Meanwhile, the banks are already reaping ancillary rewards. Goldman’s 2025 sales-and-trading revenue grew 18 percent to a record $41.5 billion, while Morgan Stanley’s advanced 17 percent to $33.1 billion. Ritter attributes part of that surge to funds front-loading soft-dollar business in anticipation of the AI transactions.
Strategic implications for Wall Street
The outcome of the OpenAI and Anthropic beauty parade will influence not only revenue tallies but also league-table prestige, hiring power, and long-term relationships with the most coveted issuers in artificial intelligence. “The bank that wins lead-left controls the allocation, and allocation is the currency that matters most to institutional clients,” Ritter notes.
Both banks will still appear on the cover of each prospectus, guaranteeing participation fees. Yet only one will decide how much stock heavyweight investors such as BlackRock, Fidelity, and the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan will actually receive. That leverage, combined with the size of the offerings, makes the mandate one of the richest underwriting prizes since Alibaba’s record 2014 listing.
For portfolio managers, the safest strategy is to maintain deep, commission-heavy trading relationships with both banks until the mandates are finalized. According to Ritter, “Funds view the incremental cost of soft-dollar flows as negligible compared with the upside of a favorable allocation in an oversubscribed mega-IPO.”
With SpaceX less than two weeks from pricing, Wall Street’s attention will quickly pivot to the AI duo. Whether Goldman extends its winning streak or Morgan Stanley stages a comeback, the decision will reverberate across fee pools, trading volumes, and the balance of power in Silicon Valley’s march to the public markets.
Either way, the numbers suggest that the bank printed at the far left of each prospectus could capture a multibillion-dollar reward—before the first trade even crosses the exchange floor.
